Circular economy pathways for sustainable antimony supply for stationary energy storage systems in developing countries

Securing materials for renewable energy systems is essential for achieving equitable energy transitions. We developed an integrated static–dynamic material flow and supply chain model to quantify antimony (Sb) demand, retirement, and recovery potential in lead–acid batteries (LABs) for stationary energy storage. The 2022 baseline reveals a supply chain characterized by concentrated mining and refining, alongside geographically dispersed consumption. Two boundary scenarios were combined with within-system strategies for alloy substitution, design efficiency, and policy-driven collection and recycling. Technological substitution governs future LAB deployment and Sb demand: low substitution sustains continued growth, medium substitution slows growth and stabilizes demand at a lower long-term level than the low-substitution pathway, and high substitution leads to mid-century peaks, followed by phase-out by 2060. Regional adoption shifts redistribute demand and concentrate dependence on developing economies. Within-system measures lower the Sb intensity, whereas strong collection and recycling policies increase the recoverable Sb. Rapid substitution shortens the time window during which substantial end-of-life Sb is available for recovery, underscoring the need for coordinated substitution and recycling strategies to enhance material security and ensure a sustainable energy transition.