病毒学
H5N1亚型流感病毒
中国
谱系(遗传)
地理
亚热带
兽医学
甲型流感病毒
生物
人口学
病毒
医学
生态学
考古
社会学
基因
生物化学
作者
Min Kang,Xiaohua Tan,Meiyun Ye,Yu Liao,Tie Song,Shixing Tang
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.058
摘要
ObjectivesThe moving epidemic method (MEM) has been well used for assessing seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions. This study used the MEM to establish epidemic threshold for influenza in Guangdong, a subtropical province in China.MethodsInfluenza virology surveillance data from 2011/2012 to 2017/2018 seasons in Guangdong were used with the MEM to calculate the epidemic thresholds and timeously detect the 2018/2019 influenza season epidemic. The weekly positive proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Victoria-lineage and B/Yamagata-lineage were separately adapted to calculate the subtype-specific epidemic thresholds. The performance of MEM was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure.ResultsFor the 2018/2019 influenza season, the epidemic threshold of a weekly positive proportion was 15.08%. Epidemic detection for the 2018/2019 season was 1 week in advance. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Yamagata-lineage and B/Victoria-lineage prevailed during winter and spring and their epidemic thresholds were 5.12%, 4.53% and 4.38%, respectively. Influenza A(H3N2) was active in the summer, with an epidemic threshold of 11.99%.ConclusionsUsing influenza virology surveillance data stratified by types of influenza virus, the MEM was effectively used in Guangdong, China. This study provided a practical way for subtropical regions to establish local influenza epidemic thresholds.
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