托普西斯
蒙特卡罗方法
风险评估
统计
灵敏度(控制系统)
计算机科学
计量经济学
数学
运筹学
工程类
电子工程
计算机安全
作者
Yulin Chen,Shui-Long Shen,Annan Zhou
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120254
摘要
This study proposes a red tide risk assessment method based on intercriteria correlation (CRITIC), technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS), assessment of estuarine trophic status (ASSETS) methods and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to calculate the probability of each risk level. The integrated TOPSIS-ASSETS method is used to calculate the risk levels of each year, where index weight is determined by CRITIC method. MCS method is employed to calculate the probability of each risk level. The results showed that level III to level V indicates high possibility of red tides in the case study area (Tolo Harbor). The highest risk rating was level V in 1988. The change of the risk level of red tide is consistent with the real situation of the occurrence of red tide. Another case of the east part of Skagerrak Strait shows that the results of this method are consistent with field situation. When there is an error between the evaluation results and the real situation, MCS can further suggest the probability of error in the evaluation results. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis was used to test the performance of the evaluation model and two comparative methods. The results show that the proposed risk assessment method has better performance than other methods and can provide an effective risk evaluation for red tide management.
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