Causal effect of tourist visa exemption schemes on international tourist arrivals

This study assessed the causal impact of tourist visa exemption schemes on international tourist arrivals to Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries through propensity score matching. We also consider other factors on international tourism demand outlined in the literature; these factors may affect international tourist arrivals. The results revealed that the average treatment effect on the number of international tourist arrivals does not necessarily increase when the number of visa-exempt countries increases in the long term without comprehensive tourism policy planning. In addition, the average treatment effect becomes large when bilateral trade has a high-quality vertical pattern for OECD home countries. Tourist decision-making for tourism destinations is not solely based on visa policy; tourism service quality is also critical. The empirical results can provide OECD member countries with different perspectives on international tourism marketing strategies.