Predicting the Patterns of Technology Convergence in Defense Technologies

Technology convergence is one of the most efficient ways to make innovation. This study aims to predict the technology convergence in the defense field using link prediction. Based on the patent data from 2010 to 2019, a link prediction model for convergence technology has been presented. The result shows that IT technologies are likely to play a crucial role in converging military technologies. In particular, measurement, control, and computing technologies are intermediaries, driving convergence across the present and future. While the importance of gunpowder and traditional weapon technologies will diminish, the importance of aircraft technologies such as drones will be greater. Furthermore, the network analysis shows that the convergence network structure will be more centralized and dense, which means that the convergence of technologies will strengthen in the future. This paper's main contribution is to present the future direction of defense R&D promotion from the viewpoint of technology convergence.