Simulating NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Games

Using team averages in various statistical categories, such as field goals attempted, field goals converted, free throws attempted, free throws converted, turnovers, and offensive rebounds, we estimate the probability of a possession in a game ending in a free-throw attempt, shot attempt, or turnover. By utilizing these estimated possession outcome probabilities, we create a Monte Carlo model that simulates every possession in a NCAA Basketball Tournament game. The output of the model estimates the points scored for each team, the point spread, the total points for the game, and the chance of each team winning.