Dynamic probability analysis on accident chain of atmospheric tank farm based on Bayesian network

Due to massive flammable chemical materials and dense layout, domino accident chain always occurs in major accidents of atmospheric storage tank farm. In this paper, 136 domino effect accidents of atmospheric tanks are analyzed to achieve relative probability by ETA method. Based on accident probability, an analysis model is proposed to define the most likely accident chain and the key tank in the atmospheric tank farm. To get the real accident scenario, the method adopts the heat radiation model of pool fire under the fire extinguishing conditions. Combined with the dynamic Bayesian network, the escalation model of accident chain is established to figure out the dynamic probability of the tank under the condition of fire extinguishing. Finally, an example is used to verify the feasibility of the method. It is of great theoretical significance and application value for the treatment of domino accident in atmospheric tank farm.