A Study of Charging Demand Estimation Model of Electric Passenger Vehicles in Beijing

With the development and popularization of electric vehicles, the charging demand for large-scale electric vehicles is an increasing challenge for the electric grid. Based on the existing electric vehicle charging data, this paper establishes a model for the calculation of electric vehicle charging demand and estimates the influence of vehicle charging on the electric grid. First, we established an electric vehicle model and expanded it into a charging station model. The station model is used to calculate the charging power of a single charging station within 24 hours and the charging demand ratio of electric vehicles. Since that the vehicles equipped with charging piles do not strongly depend on the charging station, we use the SVM algorithm to recognize these vehicles and exclude them from the data to increase the estimation accuracy of station-based charging demand. The K-means algorithm is used to estimate the coordinates of the charging stations. We finally calculate the impact of charging peaks caused by increasing the number of electric vehicles and charging power on the public grid.