Research on the identification of key factors and influence mechanism of digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises based on machine learning

Background The digital transformation of the manufacturing industry has become a key factor in enhancing enterprise competitiveness and promoting high-quality economic development amid globalization and rapid technological advances, for Chinese manufacturing enterprises, it is also a vital path to achieving high-quality development. Objective This study explores the factors influencing the digital transformation of manufacturing industries through multi-dimensional analysis with advanced machine learning techniques, assisting Chinese manufacturing enterprises in achieving high-quality transformation while considering local characteristics. Methods An interpretable model integrating XGBoost and SHAP values is proposed based on the TOE model to analyze key factors. Additionally, the causal forest approach is used to explore regional variations in these factors. Results It was found that factors such as invention patents, digital-oriented management innovation, equity incentives, and profitability significantly drive digital transformation in manufacturing firms. There are also regional differences in the importance of these factors. Conclusions The empirical evidence provides a crucial reference for enterprises and decision-makers to formulate more scientifically grounded digital transformation strategies based on regional characteristics, offering strong support for transformation according to local conditions.