A three-stage eccDNA based molecular profiling significantly improves the identification, prognosis assessment and recurrence prediction accuracy in patients with glioma

Glioblastoma (GBM) progression is influenced by intratumoral heterogeneity. Emerging evidence has emphasized the pivotal role of extrachromosomal circular DNA (eccDNA) in accelerating tumor heterogeneity, particularly in GBM. However, the eccDNA landscape of GBM has not yet been elucidated. In this study, we first identified the eccDNA profiles in GBM and adjacent tissues using circle- and RNA-sequencing data from the same samples. A three-stage model was established based on eccDNA-carried genes that exhibited consistent upregulation and downregulation trends at the mRNA level. Combinations of machine learning algorithms and stacked ensemble models were used to improve the performance and robustness of the three-stage model. In stage 1, a total of 113 combinations of machine learning algorithms were constructed and validated in multiple external cohorts to accurately distinguish between low-grade glioma (LGG) and GBM in patients with glioma. The model with the highest area under the curve (AUC) across all cohorts was selected for interpretability analysis. In stage 2, a total of 101 combinations of machine learning algorithms were established and validated for prognostic prediction in patients with glioma. This prognostic model performed well in multiple glioma cohorts. Recurrent GBM is invariably associated with aggressive and refractory disease. Therefore, accurate prediction of recurrence risk is crucial for developing individualized treatment strategies, monitoring patient status, and improving clinical management. In stage 3, a large-scale GBM cohort (including primary and recurrent GBM samples) was used to fit the GBM recurrence prediction model. Multiple machine learning and stacked ensemble models were fitted to select the model with the best performance. Finally, a web tool was developed to facilitate the clinical application of the three-stage model.