模棱两可
气候变化
钥匙(锁)
计算机科学
过程(计算)
介绍(产科)
不确定性
影响评估
投影(关系代数)
气候学
环境资源管理
环境科学
政治学
海洋学
数学
统计
程序设计语言
地质学
放射科
操作系统
公共行政
医学
计算机安全
算法
作者
Robert Kopp,Michael Oppenheimer,Jessica O’Reilly,Sybren Drijfhout,Tamsin Edwards,Baylor Fox‐Kemper,Gregory G. Garner,Nicholas R. Golledge,Tim H. J. Hermans,Helene T. Hewitt,Benjamin P. Horton,Gerhard Krinner,Dirk Notz,Sophie Nowicki,Matthew D. Palmer,Aimée B. A. Slangen,Cunde Xiao
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8
摘要
Future sea-level change is characterized by both quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainties. Effective communication of both types of uncertainty is a key challenge in translating sea-level science to inform long-term coastal planning. Scientific assessments play a key role in the translation process and have taken diverse approaches to communicating sea-level projection uncertainty. Here we review how past IPCC and regional assessments have presented sea-level projection uncertainty, how IPCC presentations have been interpreted by regional assessments and how regional assessments and policy guidance simplify projections for practical use. This information influenced the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report presentation of quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty, with the goal of preserving both elements as projections are adapted for regional application. The extent to which sea level will rise under climate change is uncertain, with some of this uncertainty being quantifiable and some unquantifiable. This Review discusses past and present presentations of this uncertainty in IPCC and regional assessments, as well as their influence on users' interpretations.
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