Trend analysis of pressure ulcers in adults 60 years and older from 1990 to 2021 using jointpoint regression and Bayesian age period cohort models

Pressure ulcers are a global public health problem that contributes significantly to patient suffering and healthcare system costs, necessitating an understanding of their epidemiological trends and burdens. This study aims to perform a systematic analysis of pressure ulcer trends and burdens in individuals aged 60 and above using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to inform prevention and treatment strategies. Data were extracted from the GBD 2021 dataset spanning 1990 to 2021. We analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of pressure ulcers in individuals aged 60 and above. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess temporal trends, and a Bayesian age period cohort (BAPC) model was applied to forecast future burdens. Sociodemographic index (SDI) data were utilized to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic factors on disease burden. The global incidence of pressure ulcers in individuals aged 60 and above increased from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, the number of incident cases was 1,725,111.46 worldwide. The burden of pressure ulcers is closely related to the level of SDI: the higher the SDI is, the greater the incidence of pressure ulcers; the lower the SDI is, the greater the pressure ulcer mortality. The United States had the highest number of cases and incidence. The BAPC model projected a continued increase in pressure ulcer cases in the United States, India, Barbados, Mauritius, Malaysia, and Georgia in the future. The burden of pressure ulcers in individuals aged 60 and above has significantly increased over the past three decades, posing a substantial challenge to global public health. Active prevention and management measures are crucial to reduce the disease burden, improve patient quality of life, and decrease healthcare costs.