细胞自动机
计算机科学
风险评估
海底管道
风险分析(工程)
蒙特卡罗方法
运筹学
工程类
计算机安全
统计
人工智能
业务
数学
岩土工程
作者
Michel Grand Blanc,Andrea Carpignano,Sandra Dulla,Stefano Marolo
标识
DOI:10.1177/1748006x16688607
摘要
A new approach to assess the risk associated with jetfire and poolfire accidents on an offshore oil facility using cellular automata is presented. This model simulates many accident scenarios, and the related evacuation processes, adopting a Monte Carlo approach in order to evaluate an average consequence and then a more realistic value of the risk associated with these accidents. The results of this new method are discussed and compared with the results obtained from a traditional approach over a real case study. The comparison shows that this new approach supplies lower risk-related results, still being conservative; besides, it can supply further information useful in the design phase.
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