Ecological restoration zoning and its driving factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on landscape ecological risk and ecosystem services

• ERI and ES of BTH are evaluated, and their spatiotemporal variations are revealed. • Identified strong negative correlations between ERI and most ES. • Based on the ERI-ES quadrant, BTH is divided into four ecological restoration zones. The precise restoration and sustainable management of regional ecosystems depend on the scientific delineation of ecological restoration zones. The sustainability and vulnerability of regional ecosystems are described by landscape ecological risk (ERI) and ecosystem services (ES), respectively, from the perspectives of positive function and negative disturbance. Integrating them facilitates a more comprehensive identification of ecosystem degradation risks and functional deficiencies, thereby providing dual support for formulating differentiated restoration strategies. To address the existing imbalance between the vulnerability and sustainability of ecosystems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, this study quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional ERI and multiple ES (including Food supply (FS), Water yield (WY), Soil retention (SR), Carbon storage (CS), Habitat quality (HQ), from 2000 to 2020, integrating ERI assessment with multi-model ES evaluation. Spatial associations between ERI and individual ES were analyzed using bivariate spatial autocorrelation. Based on the ERI-ES relationship, an ecological restoration zoning framework was established, and key driving forces were identified using Geo-detector analysis. Key results indicate: (1) Overall improvements in most ES (FS, WY, SR, MESLI) alongside decreasing ERI and declines in CS and HQ over the study period; (2) Predominantly significant negative spatial correlations between ERI and ES (except for WY); (3) Delineation of four distinct ecological restoration zones prioritizing different management strategies; (4) Elevation, the normalized differential vegetation index, and the human footprint identified as primary drivers of the zoning patterns. The proposed zoning framework and tailored restoration strategies provide a theoretical foundation for reducing ecosystem vulnerability and enhancing sustainability in the BTH region.