天气研究与预报模式
缩小尺度
气候学
半岛
耦合模型比对项目
环境科学
风速
气候模式
温室气体
气象学
大气科学
气候变化
地理
地质学
降水
海洋学
考古
作者
Miguel Andres Martin,César Azorín-Molina,Cheng Shen,José C. Fernández‐Alvarez,Luis Gimeno,Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano,Jinlin Zha
摘要
This study assessed the projected near-surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20 km), known as WRF-CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985-2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF-CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under high shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF-CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st-century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution.
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