Impact of Diagnosis to Ablation Time on Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation and Clinical Outcomes After Catheter Ablation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis With Reconstructed Time-to-Event Data

BACKGROUND: Current clinical guidelines emphasize the significance of rhythm control with catheter ablation but lack guidance on the timing of atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation relative to the diagnosis time. We aim to investigate the latest evidence on the impact of diagnosis to ablation time (DAT) on clinical outcomes after AF ablation. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials through August 2024. Pairwise, prognostic, and reconstructed time-to-event data meta-analyses were conducted using R V. 4.3.1. Our primary end point was time to first AF recurrence, with secondary end points of all-cause mortality, tamponade, stroke, and heart failure. RESULTS: Our cohort included 23 studies with 43 711 patients. Shorter DAT was significantly associated with reduced AF recurrence across both paroxysmal and persistent AF subgroups ( P <0.01). There was a significant decrease in benefit for paroxysmal AF over time and a slight decrease in benefit for persistent AF over time. However, the benefit remained significant in both over time. DAT per year was significantly associated with a 10% increased risk of AF recurrence. Reconstructed Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that DAT >1 year was significantly associated with a 70% increased risk of AF recurrence in paroxysmal AF and 30% in persistent AF. DAT ≤1 year was significantly associated with decreased all-cause mortality ( P <0.01) and showed a trend toward an association with a lower incidence of stroke ( P =0.08). However, there was no significant difference in heart failure between DAT ≤1 year and DAT >1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Early ablation is more beneficial in paroxysmal AF, with a notable decrease in benefit over time, while in persistent AF, the benefit remains significant but slightly decreases over time. Shorter DAT was significantly associated with decreased all-cause mortality and showed a trend toward an association with a lower incidence of stroke. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ ; Unique identifier: CRD42024525542.