医学
人口学
多发病率
统计的
比例危险模型
老年学
统计
共病
内科学
数学
社会学
作者
Shanshan Yao,Huiwen Xu,Ling Han,Kaipeng Wang,Guiying Cao,Nan Li,Yan Luo,Yuming Chen,Hexuan Su,Zishuo Chen,Zi-Ting Huang,Yonghua Hu,Beibei Xu
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.03.002
摘要
This study aimed to examine and compare the associations between different multimorbidity measures and mortality among older Chinese adults.Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey 2002-2018, data on fourteen chronic conditions from 13,144 participants aged ≥65 years were collected. Multimorbidity measures included condition counts, multimorbidity patterns (examined by exploratory factor analysis), and multimorbidity trajectories (examined by a group-based trajectory model). Mortality risk associated with different multimorbidity measures was each analyzed using Cox regression. C-statistic, the Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI), and the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) were used to compare the performance of different multimorbidity measures.Participants with multimorbidity, regardless of measurements, had a higher risk of death compared with people without multimorbidity. Compared with the mortality prediction model using age and sex, C-statistics showed added discrimination (over 0.77, all P < .05) for models with multimorbidity measures. Multimorbidity trajectory showed integrated discrimination and net reclassification improvement for mortality prediction compared to condition count (IDI = 0.042, NRI = 0.033) and multimorbidity pattern (IDI = 0.041, NRI = 0.069).Adding multimorbidity measures significantly improved the performance of a mortality prediction model using age and sex as predictors. Trajectory-based measures of multimorbidity performed better than count- and pattern-based measures for mortality prediction.
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