Optimal planning for thermal power plants with CCS under source–sink matching constraints: A case study of China

The low-carbon transition pathway of the power sector, especially thermal power plants is significant for reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is identified as a critical decarbonization technology, especially in a thermal power-dominated power system. Previous studies have focused on the potential of CCS in low-carbon transformation of large-scale coal-fired power plants, but rarely considered the fact that many thermal power plants locate far from suitable CO2 storage places, which may lead to deviations in the CCS potential. To quantify the application potential of CCS technology in power sector at a regional level, a long-term power generation expansion planning model is proposed in this paper, featuring detailed technical and economic characteristics of various source–sink matching options, retrofitting options and carbon emission constraints, which can get the optimal planning for thermal power plants with CCS. The power supply system of China is selected as a case study, due to its large capacity and relatively young average life of thermal power plants. Results show that with consideration of source–sink matching, technically and economically viable capacity of power plants that can be retrofitted with CCS can be reduced by 50 percent with a more concentrated distribution in North China.