Nomograms established for predicting microvascular invasion and early recurrence in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract Background In this study, we aimed to establish nomograms to predict the microvascular invasion (MVI) and early recurrence in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (SHCC), thereby guiding individualized treatment strategies for prognosis improvement. Methods This study retrospectively analyzed 326 SHCC patients who underwent radical resection at Wuhan Union Hospital between April 2017 and January 2022. They were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a 7:3 ratio. The preoperative nomogram for MVI was constructed based on univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the prognostic nomogram for early recurrence was constructed based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. We used the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curves (AUCs), and calibration curves to estimate the predictive accuracy and discriminability of nomograms. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were employed to further confirm the clinical effectiveness of nomograms. Results The AUCs of the preoperative nomogram for MVI on the training set and validation set were 0.749 (95%CI: 0.684–0.813) and 0.856 (95%CI: 0.805–0.906), respectively. For the prognostic nomogram, the AUCs of 1-year and 2-year RFS respectively reached 0.839 (95%CI: 0.775–0.903) and 0.856 (95%CI: 0.806–0.905) in the training set, and 0.808 (95%CI: 0.719–0.896) and 0.874 (95%CI: 0.804–0.943) in the validation set. Subsequent calibration curves, DCA analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrated the high accuracy and efficacy of the nomograms for clinical application. Conclusions The nomograms we constructed could effectively predict MVI and early recurrence in SHCC patients, providing a basis for clinical decision-making.