The global, regional, and national burden of oral disorders in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2021, and projections to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Oral disorders are among the most prevalent health conditions globally. This study aimed to systematically analyze the global, regional, and national burden of oral disorders between 1990 and 2021, using updated data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, and project future trends up to 2050. Data from the 2021 GBD Study were used to analyze the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of oral disorders across 204 countries and territories, grouped into 21 GBD regions by socio-demographic index (SDI). Frontier analysis and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model were employed to forecast trends up to 2050. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated using linear regression. Between 1990 and 2021, the global prevalence of oral disorders increased significantly, with permanent tooth decay and periodontitis showing the most significant growth. Although age-standardized rates (ASRs) for most oral disorders showed a slight decline or remained stable, the absolute burden, particularly for edentulism and periodontitis, rose largely due to population growth and aging. Low-and middle-SDI regions experienced the most significant increases in prevalence and incidence, whereas high-SDI regions showed relatively stable or declining trends. By 2050, the global burden of oral disorders is projected to continue increasing, with substantial regional and socioeconomic disparities persisting. Oral disorders pose a growing global health challenge, particularly in low and middle-SDI regions. Greater attention to age-related oral health, like edentulism and periodontitis, is urgently needed to address these disparities and manage the future burden.