Economic evaluation of E-bike integration in sustainable urban mobility systems

This article evaluates the economic feasibility and sustainability of integrating electric bicycles (e-bikes) into urban mobility systems, considering four key cost dimensions: capital, operating, infrastructure, and externalities. A global dataset spanning 2012–2022 was used to forecast e-bike demand through 2030 via a dual-scenario model, combining Winters’s exponential smoothing and population-based projections. Capital and operating costs were derived from industry data, while a linear programming model optimized infrastructure requirement. Externality benefits, particularly greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, were quantified using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valuations. Net social cost (NSC) was assessed through discounted cash flow analysis over a 7-year horizon. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on purchasing cost, insurance, interest rates, and carbon pricing to determine key factors influencing feasibility. Results indicate that while initial costs are significant, externality savings substantially offset expenditures under favorable conditions. Policy interventions such as subsidies, infrastructure investments, and regulations are recommended to support adoption. The findings provide critical insights for policymakers and urban planners pursuing low-carbon, equitable transport solutions.