When will China achieve its carbon emission peak? A scenario analysis based on optimal control and the STIRPAT model

Abstract China is the largest greenhouse gas emitter around the world, and is committed to achieving an emissions peak by 2030. Although some studies have identified methods to project the emissions trajectory, they have disregarded the effect of abatement capacity of highly successful Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects (i.e. abatement knowledge stock) over the past decade. In addition, the literature lacks evidence to justify results, with several questions, such as when the emissions peak will be reached and how much carbon will be emitted at the peak, remaining unaddressed. This study introduces both theoretical and empirical model for estimating the greenhouse gas emissions peak in China. The findings revealed that there is potential to reach a carbon emissions peak, estimated at 117.70 MtCO2e, by 2028. The policy implications indicated that carbon pricing and the nation-wide Emissions Trading Scheme are the most important instruments to facilitate energy transition and clean coal technology (i.e. carbon capture and storage) development. This implies that the carbon price and carbon abatement investment may need to be greater than US$32.5/tCO2e and US$57,370,000/year to meet Paris Agreement goals by 2030 in China.