Prognostic model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in liver cirrhosis: A Chinese multicenter study

BACKGROUND: Rebleeding after recovery from esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) is a severe complication that is associated with high rates of both incidence and mortality. Despite its clinical importance, recognized prognostic models that can effectively predict esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis are lacking. AIM: To construct and externally validate a reliable prognostic model for predicting the occurrence of esophagogastric variceal rebleeding. METHODS: = 155). The primary outcome was rebleeding events within 1 year. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied for predictor selection, and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to construct the prognostic model. Internal validation was performed with bootstrap resampling. We assessed the discrimination, calibration and accuracy of the model, and performed patient risk stratification. RESULTS: < 0.01) between low-risk patients and intermediate- to high-risk patients in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: We constructed and validated a new prognostic model for variceal rebleeding with excellent predictive performance, which will improve the clinical management of rebleeding in EGVB patients.