Factors Associated with Dialysis Initiation in Patients with Predialysis Arteriovenous Fistula

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> A large proportion of patients initiated hemodialysis with a central vein catheter rather than a permanent vascular access which was recommended by guidelines. One major barrier was the paucity of evidence regarding the optimal timing of vascular access creation in predialysis patients. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Our study prospectively enrolled 300 patients undergoing predialysis arteriovenous fistula (AVF) creation in our center from 2015 to 2018. Cox proportional hazard regression was performed to identify which demographic and clinical factors were associated with the initiation of hemodialysis after AVF surgery. A receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess the predictive power of preoperative factors for the likelihood of hemodialysis initiation. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Overall, 163 (54.3%), 214 (71.3%), and 275 (91.7%) patients initiated hemodialysis within 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year, respectively, after AVF creation. The median time between AVF creation and hemodialysis start was 71.5 days. Using multivariate Cox regression analysis, three factors were associated with hemodialysis initiation within 1 year: serum phosphorus (HR = 1.407, <i>p</i> = 0.021), diabetic kidney disease (DKD) (HR = 1.429, <i>p</i> = 0.039), and cystatin C (HR = 1.179, <i>p</i> = 0.009). Cystatin C alone had a moderate predictive value for dialysis initiation (AUC = 0.746; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), whereas the full model had a higher predictive value (AUC = 0.800; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> DKD, serum cystatin C, and phosphorus at access surgery were associated with hemodialysis initiation within 1 year of the predialysis AVF creation. Our findings provide a basis for a more customized approach to planning AVF placement in patients with chronic kidney disease.