Adaptation of cotton production to climate change by sowing date optimization and precision resource management

Sowing date optimization is used to achieve a high crop yield and efficient resource utilization, and it is an important strategy for the adaptation of crop production to climate change. However, there is still little field evidence on the coupling effect of multiple environmental resources on cotton and its response to climate change under sowing date management. In this study, the changes in light, temperature, and water resources under different cotton sowing dates were monitored in 2021 (when an extreme rainfall occurred) and 2022. Ridge regression and structural equation models were used to analyze the responses of cotton biomass and yield formation under different sowing dates over two years to the availability and use efficiency of multiple resources, and a strategy for adapting cotton production to climate was discussed. The interaction between sowing date and climate change had significant effects on cotton yield components, as did light, temperature, and water resource use efficiency. The extreme rainstorm in 2021 reduced seed cotton yield by 52.75 % at most, and the yield reduction was alleviated through sowing date management. Growth degree day (GDD), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and soil water consumption (SWC) accumulation had positive coupling effects on cotton biomass formation, and the magnitude of their effects decreased. The PAR and GDD at squaring stage and SWC at flowering and boll development stage affected aboveground biomass and thus seed cotton yield. The heat use efficiency (HUE) and water use efficiency (WUE) had a positive coupling effect on seed cotton yield. Improving HUE and WUE through precise management of temperature and light resources during squaring stage and water resources during flowering and boll development stage may promote efficient production and high yields of cotton under climate change. This study portrays climate-smart agriculture and has important reference value for adapting cotton production to climate change.