Hierarchical schedule risk structures and mitigation strategies in prefabricated building projects: an integrated SNA-ISM approach

Purpose Prefabricated construction is a key tool for improving global carbon emissions. However, due to the complexity of the construction scenarios in prefabricated building projects, the coupling of risks and the new risks brought about by the adoption of emerging technologies in the context of intelligent construction, the performance of modular construction methods has not been fully realized. As the use of modular construction increases globally, managing the schedule risks of modular construction becomes increasingly important. Design/methodology/approach Through a systematic literature review and the Delphi method, key schedule risk factors are identified and classified using the 4M1E framework. A combined approach of social network analysis (SNA) and interpretive structural modeling (ISM) is employed to analyze the key risk factors affecting construction schedules in prefabricated building projects and their complex relationships, revealing the mechanisms of risk interaction. Findings The research found that the application of emerging technologies, prefabricated component production plans and mechanical equipment selection are key risk factors affecting the construction schedule of prefabricated buildings, and they occupy a central position in the risk propagation network. Furthermore, human factors and force majeure factors are the root causes of schedule risk propagation, exacerbating the volatility and uncertainty of the construction schedule through various channels. Based on this, risk control suggestions are proposed, including scientifically assessing the maturity and applicability of emerging technologies, adopting decentralized collaboration platforms and establishing flexible workforce allocation mechanisms. Originality/value Previous studies have focused on the application of single methods, with insufficient attention given to the coupling of schedule risks. This study, by comprehensively applying SNA and ISM, systematically identifies and analyzes the propagation characteristics and paths of construction schedule risks in prefabricated building projects. This provides a new perspective and methodology for exploring the interaction mechanisms of schedule risks. Based on the research findings, this paper establishes a dynamic risk control system for the construction schedule of prefabricated building projects, enabling project managers to make scientific decisions in complex environments and ensure the smooth progress of the project.