Perceived economic uncertainties and childbearing intentions among young cohorts in China: a multinomial analysis

Abstract Economic uncertainties have become the focus of many recent fertility studies. Embedded in and shaping people’s forecasts of the future, economic uncertainties refer to the lack of predictability and stability in the economic conditions, such as employment status and labour market situations. It is believed that economic uncertainties can impact fertility outcomes and the timing of family transitions through people’s perceptions of varying futures, but much is unexplored in Asian countries, particularly when an economic downturn has been observed and is underway recently. This study’s objective was to examine the perceptions of economic uncertainties among young people in China and the influence these had on the value attached to the experience of having children. For this, a national sample of young individuals aged 17 to 33 was recruited online through the Credamo platform. Demographic and individual economic factors were controlled, and multinomial logistic regression was used to analyse the association between economic uncertainties and young people’s views on having children. The study found a clear association between economic uncertainties and the necessity and planning for having children. More optimistic expectations for the future economy and labour market were associated with higher likelihood of approving of the necessity of childbearing and childrearing, as well as higher fertility intention. The findings also highlighted associations of other demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, such as sex, marital status, and house ownership. The respondents’ expectations of an uncertain future shaped their decisions regarding life events, including future fertility. Thus, assisting young people in gaining a sense of security in the face of social uncertainty is critical in future government policy plans if a fertility rebound in China is to be achieved.