Associations between the incidence and mortality rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus and long-term exposure to ambient air pollution: A 12-year cohort study in northern China

Ambient air pollution has recently been related to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), a disease that has caused an economic and health burden worldwide. Evidence of an association between air pollution and T2DM was reported in the United States and Europe. However, few studies have focused on the association with high levels of air pollutants in a developing country. We conducted a 12-year cohort study to assess the incidence and mortality of T2DM associated with long-term exposure to PM10, SO2, and NO2. A retrospective cohort with participants from four cities in northern China was conducted to assess mortality and incidence of T2DM from 1998 to 2009. Incidence of T2DM was self-reported, and incident intake of an antidiabetic drug or injection of insulin simultaneously and mortality of T2DM was obtained from a family member and double checked against death certificates provided from the local center for disease control and prevention. Individual pollution exposures were the mean concentrations of pollutants estimated from the local environmental monitoring centers over the survival years. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression models after adjusting for potential confounding factors. A total of 39 054 participants were recruited into the mortality cohort, among which 59 subjects died from T2DM; 38 529 participants were analyzed in the incidence cohort, and 1213 developed new cases of T2DM. For each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10, SO2, and NO2, the adjusted HRs and 95% confidence interval (CI) for diabetic incidence were 1.831 (1.778, 1.886), 1.287 (1.256, 1.318), and 1.472 (1.419, 1.528), respectively. Similar results can be observed in the analysis of diabetic mortality with HRs (95% CI) up to 2.260 (1.732, 2.950), 1.130 (1.042, 1.225), and 1.525 (1.280, 1.816), respectively. Our results suggested that long-term exposure to high levels of PM10, SO2, and NO2 increase risk of incident and mortality of T2DM in China.