A Sequential Algorithm Combining ADAPT and Liver Stiffness Can Stage Metabolic-Associated Fatty Liver Disease in Hospital-Based and Primary Care Patients

INTRODUCTION: Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease is common, with fibrosis the major determinant of adverse outcomes. Population-based screening tools with high diagnostic accuracy for the staging of fibrosis are lacking. METHODS: Three independent cohorts, 2 with both liver biopsy and liver stiffness measurements (LSMs, n = 254 and 65) and a population sample (n = 713), were studied. The performance of a recently developed noninvasive algorithm (ADAPT [age, diabetes, PRO-C3 and platelets panel]) as well as aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, fibrosis-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score, and LSM was used to stage patients for significant (≥F2) and advanced (≥F3) fibrosis. RESULTS: In the hospital-based cohorts, the N-terminal propeptide of type 3 collagen (Pro-C3) increased with fibrosis stage ( P < 0.0001) and independently associated with advanced fibrosis (odds ratio = 1.091, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.053–1.113, P = 0.0001). ADAPT showed areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.831 (95% CI: 0.779–0.875) in the derivation and 0.879 (95% CI: 0.774–0.946) in the validation cohort for advanced fibrosis. This was superior to the existing fibrosis scores, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, fibrosis‐4, BARD (BMI, aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio [AAR], diabetes), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score in most comparisons and comparable with LSM. Serial use of ADAPT and LSM had diagnostic accuracy of 92.5%, with 98% and 100% negative predictive value in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the population cohort, PRO-C3 associated with advanced fibrosis ( P = 0.04), while ADAPT had a negative predictive value of 98% for excluding advanced fibrosis. DISCUSSION: PRO-C3 and ADAPT reliably exclude advanced fibrosis in low-risk populations. The serial combination of ADAPT with LSM has high diagnostic accuracy with a low requirement for liver biopsy. The proposed algorithm would help stratify those who need biopsies and narrow down those patients who would need to be referred to specialty clinics.