A 15-Gene Immune, Stromal, and Proliferation Gene Signature that Significantly Associates with Poor Survival in Patients with Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a lethal disease with dismal survival rates. Tumor microenvironment (TME), comprising of immune cells and cancer-associated fibroblasts, plays a key role in driving poor prognosis and resistance to chemotherapy. Herein, we aimed to identify a TME-associated, risk-stratification gene biomarker signature in PDAC.The initial biomarker discovery was performed in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA, n = 163) transcriptomic data. This was followed by independent validation of the gene signature in the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC, n = 95), E-MTAB-6134 (n = 288), and GSE71729 (n = 123) datasets for predicting overall survival (OS), and for its ability to detect poor molecular subtypes. Clinical validation and nomogram establishment was undertaken by performing multivariate Cox regression analysis.Our biomarker discovery effort identified a 15-gene immune, stromal, and proliferation (ISP) gene signature that significantly associated with poor OS [HR, 3.90; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.36-6.41; P < 0.0001]. This signature also robustly predicted survival in three independent validation cohorts ICGC [HR, 2.63 (1.56-4.41); P < 0.0001], E-MTAB-6134 [HR, 1.53 (1.14-2.04); P = 0.004], and GSE71729 [HR, 2.33 (1.49-3.63); P < 0.0001]. Interestingly, the ISP signature also permitted identification of poor molecular PDAC subtypes with excellent accuracy in all four cohorts; TCGA (AUC = 0.94), ICGC (AUC = 0.91), E-MTAB-6134 (AUC = 0.80), and GSE71729 (AUC = 0.83). The ISP-derived high-risk patients exhibited significantly poor OS in a clinical validation cohort [n = 119; HR, 2.62 (1.50-4.56); P = 0.0004]. A nomogram was established which included the ISP, CA19-9, and T- and N-stage for eventual clinical translation.We report a novel gene signature for risk-stratification and robust identification of patients with PDAC with poor molecular subtypes.