Evolution of serum progesterone levels in the very early luteal phase of stimulated IVF/ICSI cycles post hCG trigger: a proof of concept study

Studies have suggested that controlled ovarian hyperstimulation adversely affects endometrial receptivity due to advanced endometrial maturation. This adverse effect is mainly attributed to supraphysiological levels of both estrogen and progesterone identified in stimulated cycles. There is a paucity of published data investigating the very early luteal steroid profile following hCG trigger.This prospective, observational study was undertaken to determine the increase in serum progesterone levels after human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) trigger in stimulated IVF/ICSI cycles.This proof-of-concept study included 11 patients requiring ovarian stimulation for IVF/ICSI and who planned to avail of pre-implantation genetic screening with embryo vitrification of their biopsied embryos at blastocyst stage. For each study participant, five additional blood samples were drawn at the following specific times in the stimulation cycle, on the morning (10.00-12.00) of the assigned day to induce final oocyte maturation with hCG trigger, immediately prior to administration of hCG for final oocyte maturation, 1 h, 2 h, and 36 h post hCG trigger. A prediction model, the Gompertz curve, was used to determine serum progesterone levels at intervals between the 2 h post hCG trigger sample and the day of oocyte retrieval.Statistically significant increases in serum progesterone levels were identified following hCG administration as early as 1 h following trigger (P4 0.57 ng/ml, p < 0.05), 2 h following trigger (P4 0.88 ng/ml, p < 0.001) and on the day of oocyte retrieval (P4 9.68 ng/ml, p < 0.001). According to our prediction model, the Gompertz curve, the projected serum progesterone level at 4 h post trigger would have achieved a level of 1.45 ng/ml, 8 h post trigger of 3.04 ng/ml, and 12 h post trigger of 4.8 ng/ml. The very early and significant increases in serum progesterone following hCG trigger are clearly demonstrated in this study.The endometrium is undoubtedly exposed to rapidly increasing serum progesterone levels post hCG trigger that would not be identified until much later in natural menstrual cycles.This study is registered with clinicaltrials.gov under the identifier NCT04417569.