Tourism-Led Growth Perceptions in a Hydrocarbon Economy: Mixed-Methods SEM Evidence from Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

Purpose: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 designates tourism as a non-oil diversification engine. This study tests Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) predictions among tourism professionals across five regions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), proposing the TLGH-GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Framework. Design/Methodology/Approach: Sequential explanatory mixed-methods design: Structural Equation Modelling (SEM; N = 612; five regions) as primary evidence, executive interviews (n = 24) explaining mechanisms, and exploratory ARDL (T = 9; non-inferential). Findings: Perceptual support was found for all four hypothesised structural pathways (all p < 0.001), with megaproject investment exhibiting the strongest association with employment generation (β = 0.63) and sustainability governance challenges inversely associated with diversification efficiency. All associations are directionally consistent with TLGH predictions but do not establish causation. Qualitative findings further identified Saudisation alignment and workforce competency development as critical boundary conditions for translating tourism employment growth into sustained economic diversification. Theoretical Contribution: The TLGH-GCC Framework extends TLGH with institutional acceleration, Dutch Disease boundary conditions, and sustainability governance as a diversification determinant. The SGS-6 scale is validated for GCC megaproject contexts. Practical Implications: Regional decentralisation of gigaproject investment, occupational upgrading, and proactive sustainability governance are the highest-leverage Vision 2030 policy interventions. The findings further inform human capital development priorities under Vision 2030, including sector-specific tourism competency frameworks and Saudisation alignment in megaproject workforce planning. Originality/Value: The study addresses a methodological gap in the TLGH literature by combining five-region stratified SEM, executive interviews, and the validated SGS-6 sustainability governance scale within a single GCC-contextualised framework.