Evolution of cumulative live birth and dropout rates over six complete IVF/ICSI cycles: a large prospective cohort study

Research question How do cumulative live birth rates (CLBR), cumulative multiple live birth rates (CMLBR) and dropout rates over six IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles change over time? Design Prospective longitudinal cohort (n = 16,073 patients; 48,946 cycles) starting a first fresh assisted reproductive technology cycle between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016, with follow-up until 31 December 2017. Outcomes between the periods 2014–2017 and 2009–2012 were compared. Results Conservative estimates of CLBR after six complete cycles were significantly higher in women younger than 35 years after every cycle: one to three, adjusted P-value [p adj] < 0.0001; four, p = 0.01; five, p adj = 0.03; six, p adj = 0.04) and after the first cycle in women aged 35–37 years (p adj = 0.04) in 2014–2017 versus 2009–2012. For an optimal estimate, the CLBR was significantly higher after the first three cycles in women younger than 35 years (all p adj < 0.0001) and after the first cycle in women aged 35–37 years (p adj = 0.04). The CMLBR rate decreased from 5.1% ± 0.19 (SE) to 4.1% ± 0.16 for the conservative estimate and from 8.6% ±0.37 (SE) to 6.7% ± 0.30 for the optimal estimate after six complete cycles for the whole cohort. Dropout rates of complete cycles were 26.5% 29.4%, 33.4%, 38.9% and 47.3% after the first to fifth cycle, respectively. Compared with 2009–2012, the dropout rate in the current period was significantly higher for the first (P < 0.0001) and second (P = 0.0124) cycle. Conclusion Over six complete IVF/ICSI cycles, CLBR and dropout rates increased and multiple live birth rates decreased when 2014–2017 was compared with 2009–2012.