Spatial-Temporal Characteristics in Grain Production and Its Influencing Factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1995 to 2018

The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is the major crop-producing region in China. Based on the climate and socio-economic data from 1995 to 2018, we analyzed the spatial–temporal characteristics in grain production and its influencing factors by using exploratory spatial data analysis, a gravity center model, a spatial panel data model, and a geographically weighted regression model. The results indicated the following: (1) The grain production of eastern and southern areas was higher, while that of western and northern areas was lower; (2) The grain production center in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain shifted from the southeast to northwest in Tai’an, and was distributed stably at the border between Jining and Tai’an; (3) The global spatial autocorrelation experienced a changing process of “decline–growth–decline”, and the area of hot and cold spots was gradually reduced and stabilized, which indicated that the polarization of grain production in local areas gradually weakened and the spatial difference gradually decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain; (4) The impact of socio-economic factors has been continuously enhanced while the role of climate factors in grain production has been gradually weakened. The ratio of the effective irrigated area, the amount of fertilizer applied per unit sown area, and the average per capita annual income of rural residents were conducive to the increase in grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain; however, the effect of the annual precipitation on grain production has become weaker. More importantly, the association between the three factors and grain production was found to be spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level.