Glypican-3 and hepatocyte paraffin-1 combined with alpha-fetoprotein as a novel risk scoring model for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Background At present, the predictive model of postsurgical recurrence for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well-established. The aim of this study was to develop a novel model for prediction of postsurgical recurrence and survival for HCC. Patients and methods Data from 112 patients who underwent curative liver resection from June 2014 to June 2017 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University were collected retrospectively. Through the statistical analysis, we combined the results of glypican-3 (GPC3) and hepatocyte paraffin-1 (Heppar1) chemical staining in tumor tissues and preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and assigned risk scores to them, respectively, to establish an improved prognostic model for predicting recurrence in these patients. Results By univariate and multivariate analysis, AFP level [cut-off value: 382 ng/ml, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.652, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.539–0.765, P < 0.05] and GPC3/Heppar1 expression pattern from 10 putative prognostic factors were entered in risk factor scoring model to conjecture the tumor recurrence. At 36 months after liver resection, the recurrence rate of high-risk group in the novel risk scoring model reached 45.6%, which was significantly higher than that of low-risk group (9.1%). In this experiment, the AUC value of the model was 0.741 (95% CI = 0.644–0.839, P < 0.001), which was the highest among all the elements. Conclusion The novel risk scoring model of combing AFP cut-off value and GPC3/Heppar1 were shown to be effective at predicting early recurrence of HCC after curative resection.