To Hedge or Not to Hedge

During President Yoon Suk-yeol’s leadership, South Korea reaffirmed alignment with the United States, supported the US-led Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy, and embraced “strategic clarity” by abandoning the “strategic ambiguity” and hedging approach of the Moon Jae-in administration. President Yoon’s impeachment following his declaration of martial law, uncertainties surrounding a second Trump presidency, and the deepening cooperation among China, Russia, and North Korea have prompted South Korean policymakers to reevaluate the country’s strategic posture amid intensifying great power competition. This article argues that rising uncertainty in international politics, combined with a new liberal administration, will lead South Korea to revive strategic ambiguity as means of pursuing greater autonomy and more balanced policies between the US, China, and Russia. It examines Seoul’s dilemma in transitioning from hedging to balancing, its repositioning under the Lee Jae-myung administration, and the implications of a return to strategic hedging for balance-of-power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.