Identification of risk factors for acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis based on baseline high-resolution computed tomography: a prospective observational study

Abstract Background This study aimed to investigate risk factors for acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AE-IPF) based on baseline high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Methods This prospective observational study enrolled patients with IPF treated at the General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University between January 2019 and January 2021. HRCT-derived quantitative parameters at baseline were analyzed. Results A total of 102 patients [92 (90.2%) males with a mean age of 67 years] with IPF were included, with a median follow-up of 32 (24-40.5) months. AE occurred in 30 (29.4%) IPF patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified Doppler transthoracic echocardiography suggestive of pulmonary hypertension (PH) (13.43; 95% CI: 4.18–41.09; P < 0.001), honeycombing (OR 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02–1.14; P = 0.013), and whole lung volume (OR 0.99; 95% CI: 0.99-1.00; P = 0.037) as independent risk factors for AE-IPF. The combination of PH, honeycombing, whole lung volume, and the percentage of predicted forced vital capacity (FVC% pred) showed a high area under the curve from receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.888, with a sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 78%. Conclusions This study emphasizes that quantitative CT parameters (honeycombing, whole lung volume) may serve as risk factors for AE-IPF. The combination of honeycombing, whole lung volume, FVC% pred, and PH may aid in predicting AE-IPF.