An Integrated System Dynamics Model and Life Cycle Assessment for Cement Production in South Africa

Cement is one of the most produced materials globally. Population growth and urbanization cause an increased demand for the cement needed for expanding infrastructures. As a result of this circumstance, the cement industry must find the optimum compromise between increasing cement production and reducing the negative environmental impact of that production. Since cement production uses a lot of energy, resources and raw materials, it is essential to assess its environmental impact and determine methods for the sector to move forward in sustainable ways. This paper uses an integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) and a system dynamics (SDs) model to predict the long-term environmental impact and future dynamics of cement production in South Africa. The first step used the LCA midpoint method to investigate the environmental impact of 1 kg of Portland cement produced in South Africa. In the cement production process, carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO2), methane (CH4) and particulate matter (PM) were the major gases emitted. Therefore, the LCA concentrated on the impact of these pollutants on global warming potential (GWP), ozone formation, human health, fine particulate matter formation and terrestrial acidification. The system dynamics model is used to predict the dynamics of cement production in South Africa. The LCA translates its results into input variables into a system dynamics model to predict the long-term environmental impact of cement production in South Africa. From our projections, the pollutant outputs of cement production in South Africa will each approximately double by the year 2040 with the associated long-term impact of an increase in global warming. These results are an important guide for South Africa’s future cement production and environmental impact because it is essential that regulations for cement production are maintained to achieve long-term environmental impact goals. The proposed LCA–SD model methodology used here enables us to predict the future dynamics of cement production and its long-term environmental impact, which is the primary research objective. Using these results, a number of policy changes are suggested for reducing emissions, such as introducing more eco-blended cement productions, carbon budgets and carbon tax.