Global at-risk basins of socio-ecological impacts from water scarcity

Water scarcity has been increasingly impacting social and ecological systems in the context of climate change. The United Nations water conference, convened in March 2023, calls for governing water and addressing climate change in tandem to co-achieve related sustainable development goals. However, the actual (water scarcity under current climate conditions) and potential (potential water scarcity under climate change) impacts of water scarcity on these systems are rarely assessed on a global scale. Herein, we developed a framework that integrates water scarcity and climate sensitivity to assess the socio-ecological vulnerability of global basins. We found that basins that already experience water scarcity exhibit a disproportionate magnitude of climate sensitivity, exacerbating the challenges associated with managing water resources. We identified the at-risk basins by integrating socio-ecological vulnerability and found that the most at-risk basins (n = 21), which collectively accommodate 500 hundred million inhabitants, are mainly located in developing countries, implying the urgent need of international cooperation for reducing these vulnerabilities. Current Integrated Water Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation may not be enough to alleviate the water crisis and to adapt to climate change in these at-risk basins, we thus urge policy makers in at-risk regions to integrate integrated water resources management and climate change adaptation measures to synergistically achieve related sustainable goals.