A Flood Forecasting Model for the River Padma

Flood constitute one of the critical problems faced by Bangladesh. Due to the unique graphical situation of Bangladesh in the delta of three great rivers, namely the Brahmaputra, the Padma and the Meghna, which drains a vast catchment, flood in this country is usually complex. The problem is gigantic and becomes more complicated with the passage of time. The flood in 1998 sever flood is the highest record. Analysis of water level data of two stations shows that the forecasting model is a linear equation of the type Y= a+bX. Data of the nine hydrologic years have been analyzed in this paper. In most cases values of co-efficient “a” varies from 0.3112 to 1.558 and “b” from 1.047 to 11.91. The general equation for the flood forecasting for the GoalundoTransi station has been established as Y = 1.283X - 8.351 in this paper. The value of travel time of flood wave from base station to forecasting station according to historical method andMutreja’s method is 2days for both.