The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China, the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration, thereby impacting grassland ecosystem services. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage, forage supply, and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North China. We then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration, and livestock-carrying pressure. Over the last 16 years, the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km2, with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7% of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4% of grasslands. The provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time, with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha, but livestock-carrying pressure also increased continuously. The livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as 3.8. Apart from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau, most regions in North China are currently overloaded. Considering the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season, the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1, with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner Mongolia. Assuming full supplementary feeding in the cold season, livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9, with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan Plateau. Finally, we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas, pastoral areas, farming-pastoral ecotone, and farming areas, according to the grassland ecological protection patterns.