Predictive Effects of Intolerance of Uncertainty, Perceived Uncertainty and Need for Autonomy on Depression and Anxiety Levels of University Students in the Post‑COVID‑19 Era

This study investigates the predictive roles of perceived uncertainty, intolerance of uncertainty, and frustrated need for autonomy on depression and anxiety levels among Turkish university students during a period in which the effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic persisted. Prior research indicates that emerging adults are especially vulnerable to heightened anxiety and depressive symptoms under pandemic conditions. Accordingly, we hypothesized that perceived uncertainty, intolerance of uncertainty, and frustrated need for autonomy would each significantly predict levels of depression and anxiety. Data were collected online from 421 university students in Türkiye (ages 19–25; 303 female, 117 male, 1 undisclosed), who completed validated measures assessing perceived uncertainty, intolerance of uncertainty, and basic psychological need satisfaction and frustration. Hypotheses were tested via hierarchical regression analyses conducted in Jamovi software, with gender entered as a control variable. Results demonstrated that, after controlling gender, both intolerance of uncertainty and frustrated need for autonomy significantly predicted increased depression and anxiety, whereas perceived uncertainty did not exert a direct effect in the regression models. To further clarify the role of perceived uncertainty, parallel mediation analyses were performed, revealing that perceived uncertainty indirectly predicted higher levels of depression and anxiety through its effects on autonomy frustration and intolerance of uncertainty. These findings underscore the importance of targeting underlying cognitive and motivational processes in interventions designed to mitigate mental health risks among university students.