Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models

Abstract. The increasing availability of long-term observational data can lead to the development of innovative modelling approaches to determine landslide triggering conditions at a regional scale, opening new avenues for landslide prediction and early warning. This research blends the strengths of existing approaches with the capabilities of generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to develop an interpretable approach that identifies seasonally dynamic precipitation conditions for shallow landslides. The model builds upon a 21-year record of landslides in South Tyrol (Italy) and separates precipitation that induced landslides from precipitation that did not. The model accounts for effects acting at four temporal scales: short-term “triggering” precipitation, medium-term “preparatory” precipitation, seasonal effects, and across-year data variability. It provides relative landslide probability scores that were used to establish seasonally dynamic thresholds with optimal performance in terms of hit and false-alarm rates, as well as additional thresholds related to user-defined performance scores. The GAMM shows a high predictive performance and indicates that more precipitation is required to induce a landslide in summer than in winter/spring, which can presumably be attributed mainly to vegetation and temperature effects. The discussion illustrates why the quality of input data, study design, and model transparency are crucial for landslide prediction using advanced data-driven techniques.