Enhanced CT-based radiomics predicts pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for advanced adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction: a two-center study

Abstract Purpose This study aimed to develop and validate CT-based models to predict pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for advanced adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG). Methods Pre-NAC clinical and imaging data of AEG patients who underwent surgical resection after preoperative-NAC at two centers were retrospectively collected from November 2014 to September 2020. The dataset included training ( n = 60) and external validation groups ( n = 32). Three models, including CT-based radiomics, clinical and radiomics–clinical combined models, were established to differentiate pCR (tumor regression grade (TRG) = grade 0) and nonpCR (TRG = grade 1–3) patients. For the radiomics model, tumor-region-based radiomics features in the arterial and venous phases were extracted and selected. The naïve Bayes classifier was used to establish arterial- and venous-phase radiomics models. The selected candidate clinical factors were used to establish a clinical model, which was further incorporated into the radiomics–clinical combined model. ROC analysis, calibration and decision curves were used to assess the model performance. Results For the radiomics model, the AUC values obtained using the venous data were higher than those obtained using the arterial data (training: 0.751 vs. 0.736; validation: 0.768 vs. 0.750). Borrmann typing, tumor thickness and degree of differentiation were utilized to establish the clinical model (AUC-training: 0.753; AUC-validation: 0.848). The combination of arterial- and venous-phase radiomics and clinical factors further improved the discriminatory performance of the model (AUC-training: 0.838; AUC-validation: 0.902). The decision curve reflects the higher net benefit of the combined model. Conclusion The combination of CT imaging and clinical factors pre-NAC for advanced AEG could help stratify potential responsiveness to NAC.