Methodological evolution and frontiers of post-harvest greenhouse gas mitigation assessment

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 森林伐后碳减排核算方法演进与展望 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202202190397 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究"生态脆弱性与生态安全"专题(2019QZKK0308);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073064); 中国博士后基金面上项目(2020M680707) Methodological evolution and frontiers of post-harvest greenhouse gas mitigation assessment Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:森林生态系统的碳汇功能对我国完成"双碳目标"具有独特意义,其中森林伐后碳减排,包括木质林产品全生命周期内的碳储和替代减排,是增强林业中长期碳减排能力的重要路径。当前我国森林伐后碳减排研究尚落后于欧美等发达国家,不利于我国林业国家碳库模型的构建以及更好地指导固碳增汇的森林管理策略。系统回顾了近30余年国内外学术界关于森林伐后碳减排方法学的演进动态,总结了碳循环和碳减排模型的核心参数,为推进我国森林伐后碳减排研究提供理论基础。学术界近30余年涉及方法模型的主要成果如下:①建立并完善了立足于木材采伐国的生产法和简单分解法,以及立足于终端木质林产品消费国的储量变化法和大气流动法两类方法框架;②形成了体系化的碳储计算模型,并在包括发达国家和主要发展中国家取得了大量实测数据和参数积累;③初步完成了替代减排分析模型和基于情景设定的分析框架,并在以欧美国家为主体的部分地区进行了应用。在梳理历史文献的基础上,本研究认为当前存在的方法缺陷包括:第一,既有依靠实测调研获取数据的成本过高,限制了研究国家的深度和广度,尤其导致广大发展中国家研究较为薄弱;第二,当前方法框架在追踪木质林产品贸易流方面较为欠缺,难以形成生命周期链条的上下游国家的有机整合;第三,替代减排基本假设对社会经济规律下的替代考虑较为薄弱,影响其评估结果的客观性。研究认为,首先应加强在既有实测数据的基础上总结一般规律、形成经验模型,降低发展中国家的数据获取成本;其次应建立一种立足于中间木质林产品生产国的方法框架,并结合多区域投入产出模型力图整合生命周期上下游国家;最后,引入包括经济学经典的替代弹性和产业关联分析可能是增强替代减排客观性的路径。 Abstract:Carbon sequestration of forest ecosystem has unique and significant contributions to the "carbon peak and neutrality" strategy in China. The greenhouse gas mitigation function of forestry includes not only pre-harvested stages, i.e., carbon sinks in forests, but also post-harvest stages. The post-harvest greenhouse gas mitigation, including life-cycle carbon stocks and substitution benefits of harvested wood products, plays a critical role in middle- and long-term carbon sink of forestry. Currently. the post-harvest greenhouse gas mitigation researches of China are far more cutting-edge compared to those of Europe and America. As a result, existing China's post-harvest greenhouse gas mitigation researches are insufficient for constructing a comprehensive national forestry carbon budget model and designing effective policies of forest management for increasing carbon sink. We systematically reviewed the post-harvest greenhouse gas mitigation researches in the recent 30 years to outline methodological revolution in post-harvest greenhouse gas mitigation in this period and to summarize the key parameters of the models used in previous studies. The major achievements in post-harvest greenhouse gas mitigation assessment methodology in the recent 30 years include: 1) the establishment of Production Approach and Simple Decay Approach, which is timber-harvesting country-based assessment frameworks, and Stock-Change Approach and Atmospheric Flow Approach, which is end-use country-based assessment frameworks; 2) the establishment of systematic carbon stock calculation method which had been applied in developed countries and major developing countries; 3) primary establishment of substitution model and scenario-based analytical framework which were mainly applied in substitution benefit assessment of harvested wood products in European and American countries. Our literature review reveals three major methodological shortcomings of existing studies. First, the expensive data collection cost of existing field survey restricted the wide application of high-tired method, resulting in large research gap in developing countries. Second, international trade flows are hard to track under existing methodological frameworks, restricting comprehensive assessment of the countries involved in harvested wood product supply-and-use chain. Lastly, the substitution benefit assessment ignored the real substitution under socio-economical rules, undermines the accuracy of the results. We suggest that future studies should: 1) summarize general rules and empirical models based on existing parameters to reduce the data collection cost in developing countries; 2) establish an analytical framework based on semi-finished harvested wood product manufacturing country and use multiregional input-output table to link the countries involved in the supply-and-use chain; 3) introduce the classical economic substitution elasticity and industrial linkage analysis as a potential approach to improve the substitution benefit assessment. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献