Unraveling patterns, causes, and nature-based remediation strategy for non-grain production on farmland in hilly regions

The surge in non-grain production on farmland (NGPF) poses significant threats to food security and land sustainability, particularly in hilly regions. However, there remains a lack of clarity on how to effectively balance grain and non-grain production in relation to land remediation. Using Wannian County as a case study, we investigated the evolution of this by leveraging high-precision land surveys and satellite imagery. Through the application of bootstrapped partial linear regression models, we identified key influencers behind each type of NGPF. In proposing land remediation solutions, we integrated the results of NGPF and land quality evaluations to identify mismatches between non-grain production and land attributes (i.e., topography, geology, soil, and land use). Our findings reveal a substantial growth in NGPF, expanding from 3,838.72 ha to 5,659.64 ha (2010-2020), and predominantly occurring on farmland with favorable natural conditions and connected locations such as proximity to roads, town centers, and industrial plants. Surprisingly, the basic farmland protection policy shows limited effectiveness in curbing NGPF, except for garden operations. We identify 1,674 NGPF patches suitable for conversion to grain production and provide land remediation suggestions tailored to low-quality farmland with specific natural barriers, thus complementing the demand for regional non-grain production. This study thereby innovatively proposes nature-based land remediation strategies to address the non-grain production dilemma by tailoring NGPF and land quality, offering valuable insights for sustainable farmland management in China and beyond.