Spatiotemporal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass and community succession for driving factors in a meso-eutrophic lake

Effects of climate change and nutrient load caused by human activities on lake phytoplankton blooms have attracted much attention globally. However, their roles and synergistic effects on phytoplankton biomass and community historical succession are not well understood, especially for meso-eutrophic plateau lakes. In this study, a multi-year (1997-2022) monthly dataset including hydro-chemical and meteorological indicators of the meso-eutrophic plateau lake Erhai in China, was used to explore the contributions of climate change and nutrients on phytoplankton biomass variation and community succession. Phytoplankton biomass increased from 1997 to 2006, slowly decreased from 2006 to 2015, then increased again from 2015 to 2022, according to a generalised additive model (GAM). Alongside warming, nitrogen, phosphorus and organic matter are key drivers of long-term interannual variation in phytoplankton biomass and historical succession of the phytoplankton community. The extensive blooms in recent years were strongly associated with both organic matter accumulation and global warming. Phytoplankton biomass in northern and southern districts was greater than in central areas, with Cyanophyta and Pyrrophyta dominating in the north and Chlorophyta prevalent in the south. Since 2015, phytoplankton diversity has increased significantly, and biomass has declined in the southern district but increased markedly in the northern district. Spatial heterogeneity was caused by the spatial distribution of nutrients and the buoyancy regulation capacity of cyanobacteria. The results demonstrate that bloom mitigation responds strongly to nitrogen and phosphorus control in meso-eutrophic lakes, therefore preventing and controlling blooms through nitrogen and phosphorus reduction is still an effective measure. Given the accumulation of organic matter in recent years, synergistic control of organic matter and total nitrogen and phosphorus could effectively reduce the risk of cyanobacterial and dinoflagellate blooms.