可计算一般均衡
经济
扩散
一般均衡理论
碳排放税
进化经济学
经济体制
自然资源经济学
宏观经济学
温室气体
热力学
新古典经济学
生态学
物理
生物
作者
Kangxin An,Can Wang,Wenjia Cai
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2023.03.001
摘要
The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics.
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