Association of long-term exposure to air pollutant mixture and incident cardiovascular disease in a highly polluted region of China

Despite growing evidence that links long-term air pollution exposure to cardiovascular disease (CVD), the combined effects of air pollutants and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) components are still limited. A prospective cohort study was performed based on the Cohort Study on Chronic Disease of the Community Natural Population in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (CHCN-BTH) to assess the association of long-term air pollutants with incident CVD and the combined effect of the air pollutants mixture among 26,851 adults. Three-year residential exposure to air pollutants (PM2.5, O3, PM10, PM1, NO2, SO2 and CO) and PM2.5 components [black carbon (BC), NH4+, SO42-, NO3- and organic matter (OM)] were calculated based on well-validated models. Proportional hazard models were applied to assess the association of air pollutants with incident CVD. Quantile g-Computation was used to examine the combined effect of the pollutant mixture. During the 56,090 person-years follow-up, 629 participants reported incident CVD. Adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CVD per interquartile range increase in O3, PM2.5, PM1, NO2, BC, and OM concentrations were 4.52 (95%CI: 2.61, 7.83), 2.39 (95%CI: 1.83, 3.13), 2.37 (95%CI: 1.20, 4.70), 1.36 (95%CI: 1.19, 1.56), 3.84 (95%CI: 2.38, 6.18), and 3.07 (95%CI: 2.01, 4.69), respectively. In multi-pollutant models, the combined effect of air pollutant mixture on incident CVD was 2.37 (95%CI: 2.30, 2.44). PM2.5 and O3 contributed 54.3% and 44.5% of the combined effect of the air pollutant mixture, respectively. After using PM2.5 components instead of PM2.5 as part of the mixture, OM drove 55.2% of the combined effect. The findings indicated associations of air pollutant mixtures with CVD incidence. PM2.5 (especially OM) and O3 might strongly contribute to air pollutant mixtures that lead to incident CVD.