Pitfalls in forest carbon sink projection

Abstract Global forests are increasingly crucial for achieving net-zero carbon emissions, with a quarter of the mitigation efforts under the Paris Climate Agreement directed towards forests. In China, forests currently contribute to 13% of the global land's carbon sink, but their stability and persistence remain uncertain. We examined and identified that published studies suffered from oversimplifications of ecosystem succession and tree demographic dynamics, as well as poor constraints on land quality. Consequently, substantial estimations might have been suffered from underrepresented or ignored crucial factors, including tree demographic dynamics, and disturbances and habitat shifts caused by global climate change. We argue that these essential factors should be considered to enhance the reliability and accuracy of assessments of the potential for forest carbon sinks.